Official-School is opening back in August 2020 for Arizona

Discussion in 'General Education' started by readingrules12, May 28, 2020.

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  1. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    I agree that more should be done for other problems on the earth. Maybe because many of them only effect "other countries" and not as much the US such as malaria. It might be that we are seeing from others that our responses to this disease can have some impact. Some countries are reacting more than others. For example look at 3 similar countries in Europe: Norway, Finland, and Sweden. Norway and Finland made a big deal about it and did lots about it. Sweden decided to have a hands off approach and allowed for more "business as usual". Number of deaths from the virus per million people--Sweden-431, Finland-57 and Norway-40. The point being that the choices people and governments are making seem to be having some impact. Is it too much? Not enough? That is complicated.
     
  2. swansong1

    swansong1 Virtuoso

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    The message I take away from people who say this virus doesn't affect them is to please look at the statistics that say 35% or people are asymptomatic. These are the people who can go about their daily lives and spread the virus to people at risk for symptoms. This is how this virus is different from many other diseases out there.
     
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  3. futuremathsprof

    futuremathsprof Phenom

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    Arent’t many diseases (transmissible or no) asymptomatic at some point or another?
     
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  4. CaliforniaRPCV

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    ?
    This is supposed to be unusual in that asymptomatic people can transmit the virus for a longer period of time.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/health/flu-vs-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

    "Research shows a person with the flu infects an average of about 1.28 other people."
    "But without mitigation efforts such as stay-at-home orders, a person with novel coronavirus infects an average of about 2 to 3 other people."
     
  5. futuremathsprof

    futuremathsprof Phenom

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    Again, I don’t see the uniqueness of this:

    People with active TB can infect 5–15 other people through close contact over the course of a year. Without proper treatment, 45% of HIV-negative people with TB on average and nearly all HIV-positive peoplewith TB will die.”

    https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis
     
  6. otterpop

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    TB is mostly eradicated in many parts of the world, yes? I believe the occurrence in the US is very low. I’ve been tested for TB when being hired for several jobs with youth. It’s a precautionary measure, but I imagine you’re ineligible to be hired if you test positive. So, in this case, mitigation efforts such as required testing seem to have been helpful.
     
  7. swansong1

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    Your statistics state that TB is curable and preventable. Can you name another non-curable and non-preventable disease that kills more than 102,000 people in three months?
     
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  8. futuremathsprof

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    According to this article from the World Health Organization from 2018:

    Lower respiratory infections killed 3 million people or so in 2016 and HIV/AIDS killed 1 million people. And HIV/AIDS is lifelong. Once you get it, you’re stuck with it. Coronavirus isn’t permanent.

    Also, diarrheal diseases killed roughly 2 million people. I’m not joking. Excessive pooping literally killed more people than coronavirus.

    https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

    Coronavirus has killed 368,000+ people worldwide in 7+ months. Diarrhea killed significantly many more people in that length of time.

    98% of people infected with coronavirus have mild or no symptoms. Only 2% are in serious or critical condition. Wow, a whole 2%. I’m so freaked out right now.

    Coronavirus is SO much more lethal! The horror!

    You were saying?

    Again, I don’t see coronavirus as being worse than several other diseases. It’s lethality is nowhere near the level of other pathogens and coronavirus is TEMPORARY. The fact that millions and millions of people are so asymptomatic they don’t even know they have it and still get over the infection should say something about it’s weakness.

    Covid-19 is preventable. It is currently not curable. A vaccine will change that.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
  9. futuremathsprof

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    It should also be mentioned that initial models of the infection rate of coronavirus (back before we knew anything about it) said that up to 81% of the US population (264 million) would contract it and that 2.2 million would die. That’s literally a 0.833% fatality rate, which is negligible in that several other diseases kill at a much higher rate.

    Now, the CDC is saying WITH preventative measures in place (social distancing, lock-down procedures, wearing N-95 masks, sanitizing all surfaces, etc.) the expected death rate is between 100,000 and 240,000. That’s WITH every possible safeguard put in place, meaning it’s a number we can do NO better than, mathematically speaking.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnew...rus-models-death-toll-lower/story?id=70011918

    102,000 is within 100,000 and 240,000.

    QED
     
  10. MissCeliaB

    MissCeliaB Aficionado

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    You seem confused about how vaccines work.
     
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  11. futuremathsprof

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    Um, no. I know exactly how vaccines work.
     
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  12. futuremathsprof

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  13. MissCeliaB

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    Y'all, I apologize for taking the bait. I think I'll just keep him on ignore for awhile, for a little peace and serenity.
     
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  14. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    That might be true now, but in early April and with so many people staying home, the estimate was 58,000 would die. Then as things opened up, they kept raising their projections...65,000, 72,000, and eventually now it is up to 140,000 for an estimate of deaths.

    If you are in northern California, no one understands this better than you. Often when I look at COVID deaths in California, San Francisco county is either 1 or even 0 for the day. Los Angelas County is over 100 a day. There have been more people going out and not supporting the order to stay inside in Los Angelas County. Some can say, we need to open up because of________________. I can understand that argument as there are benefits to businesses and individuals in lessening restrictions. There also have been costs. To say we have been perfect on this and can't do better? I would never say that. I think nearly everyone knows more lives could have been saved.
     
  15. futuremathsprof

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    I didn’t say we did perfect on this.

    Those initial models were not accurate and were adjusted as we learned more about the virility of the virus and its communicability. That is why it kept moving because that’s how science works. Science gives us the best tentative model given the evidence. Now, we are much more confident about how many will succumb to Covid-19.

    It makes sense given what we know now.

    (As an aside, I like how MissCeliaB chided me on my lack of understanding and then when I prove she is the one who misunderstands, then she puts me on ignore. Typical.)
     
  16. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    Don't you agree though that human behavior and decisions play some part in the cases and death rate? I know New York City and New Orleans would do anything to turn back time and not have some of those large events in late February and March. Both cities have done remarkable from learning from these situations and bringing their cases way down. I believe the final death rate will be greatly impacted by the decisions made by individuals this summer. Wouldn't you agree that will have an impact?
     
  17. futuremathsprof

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    Yes, to answer your question in the last sentence.

    However, the fact that coronavirus is being made out to be the worst disease in the last century is ridiculous and, as I’ve demonstrated, is clearly not.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
  18. swansong1

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    I guess, in summary, that what bothers me most when I listen to people discuss the present pandemic is the cavalier attitude that it won't affect them and they don't care if they bring the disease to other people who may then suffer or die from it. That this disease may be passed on by simply standing next to someone who is talking is quite concerning.
    Another thing that concerns me is listening to people say "old people should just stay home". What about the fact that 25% of deaths are attributed to people under 65.
    We are still learning about children affected with dangerous symptoms and many after effects that may be long term (blood clots, heart problems, lung disease to name a few).

    I wonder if we should be trying harder to teach our children to be more empathetic?
     
  19. futuremathsprof

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    What concerns me is that a minority of the world’s populace seems to be considered more important than everyone else.

    The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. The lives of the elderly and the immunosuppressed are NO more important than anyone else. Their needs are not more important than ours. It is not fair to uproot and in many cases entirely ruin the lives of the many just to protect the few. It’s not all about them.
     
  20. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    Yes, not to mention the virus that hit in 1918-1920 was worse or at least so far.
    Excellent points. Also, there have been documented cases of young adults and teens giving it older people. How incredibly sad it would be to know that your irresponsible action might have led to someone's death.
     
  21. futuremathsprof

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    Again, it’s not all about a select group of people.
     
  22. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    So we are ruining the lives of the young by making them sit and watch Netflix on the couch while eating popcorn? We are ruining the lives of the young by having them wear a mask when they go to their favorite pizza place? We are ruining the lives of the young by having them pick up their favorite food instead of dining out? Yes, there are those who need to take risks to work. I get that. It is tough for many workers and business owners. I do find though that in most situations what is asked to protect the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions is not that much especially when we figure a life is at stake.
     
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  23. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    Never said it was.
     
  24. futuremathsprof

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    This is a gross and ignorant oversimplification. You are an essential worker and have guaranteed income. That is not the case for people who are losing their entire life savings, personal savings, whose businesses are closing permanently, who are experiencing increased levels of spousal abuse, children that are experiencing heightened levels of abuse from their parents; more and more people are committing suicide from depression, etc.

    I could list several more examples of how it’s ruining the lives of millions and millions of people.
     
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  25. futuremathsprof

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    It is inferential. Your conjectures and speculative statements indicate otherwise.
     
  26. a2z

    a2z Virtuoso

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    I was trying to stay out of this, but his post is really disingenuous and blatantly tone-deaf to the real suffering by those who haven't contracted covid but are caught up in the "cure".
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...de-alcohol-drug-death-predictions/3081706001/
    This doesn't even touch on those families who have lost their livelihoods, lost businesses they spent years building, and the general suffering of many throughout this time.
    As we sit here and only suffer by being inconvenienced, there are many who aren't getting their cancer surgeries, people so frightened by the media that they are afraid to seek medical attention due to non-covid related problems, and severe mental health issues resulting from the fear and isolation.

    So, no, the pop-corn eating, dinner picking upping family is not suffering, but that doesn't mean a huge number, even beyond the number who had bad cases or died from covid are suffering and will suffer because of the choices to shut everything down.

    It is a balancing act to spare as many on both sides who will be hurt by the covid. Those who get it and those who suffer from the "cure". But if you only care about those who contract covid, you really aren't looking at the entire covid issue and those harmed by it.
     
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  27. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    You miss the point. I get it when the costs are high. So when you point out examples when the cost are high (such as losing a job), I get it. Point taken. I am not talking about those. I am talking about all of the simple things, wearing a mask and socially distancing when outside. Yes for me it is easier than many. I do know people who have it just as easy as me, and they never wear a mask, don't social distance, and go to very public areas. In fact, the economy would be so much better if people would just do these simple things. I know lots of people who want to return to restaurants and shopping, but they don't because they see so many people not wearing masks or social distancing. They feel less safe.
     
  28. a2z

    a2z Virtuoso

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    Social distancing is what is causing the those who are suffering from the cure. It is what is causing businesses to be shuttered and what is keeping people home. Remove the social distancing, the businesses can open fully. But now they are not allowed to which is ruining the economy and hurting those who are being hurt by the cure.
     
  29. readingrules12

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    I do think that we need to care about all people the best we can. The business owner, the person losing his job, the person suffering from COVID, and the people dying from it. All are important. I think that if businesses and customers opened up and social distanced, that both health and wealth could go hand in hand. I have heard of a few businesses in Arizona like this (friends tell me they are doing well), but many places still don't try to get safety as well as business.

    I do wonder by some business behavior. Several businesses are not letting people even wear a mask inside. This is happening in some places in Texas and Idaho. They could make more money, employ more people, and keep more people safe if they allowed people to wear masks if they want to. I am sure you find this puzzling too. This just allows COVID to keep spreading, which really doesn't do any of us any good.
     
  30. a2z

    a2z Virtuoso

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    Really? I am not puzzled.
    Why are you so sure I would find it puzzling?
     
  31. readingrules12

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    Yes, they could do that, but I think we are finding it isn't safe. Sweden has allowed this and has a death rate now over 10 times that of their neighbor Norway. Worse, Sweden still is getting flooded with over 600 cases/day and one of the highest death rates in the world. Norway's businesses don't have to worry as their cases are only about 10 to 15 a day. People can feel safe to go outside. If we don't social distance, death rates and hospital rates can go through the roof. This disease is too contagious. 500,000 deaths wouldn't be impossible. Businesses won't be full until the COVID rates go down. The best way to do that are to do the things that help bring them down. I wish it wasn't necessary too.
     
  32. readingrules12

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    So you don't find it puzzling that a business would make a rule that would decrease the number of customers they have? When I was in business we learned about trying to increase profits, not decrease them.
     
  33. a2z

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    No. In this case I do not find it puzzling. The business owners see government overreach more important to them than making as much money as they can. They may also want to have a place where people who choose not to wear masks won't be judged by those who want to wear them. This is not a business issue for the business but a human psychological issue when the business owner feels oppressed by the government. So, no. I don't find it puzzling in the least bit.
     
  34. readingrules12

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    If someone has a problem with government, there has got to be a better way then finding a way to make it less safe for customers. I might not like government telling me I shouldn't drink and drive, but that doesn't mean I am going to go ahead and do it. Driving while drunk is 11 times more likely to result in an accident with injury to self or others. Yet, 2 people within 3 feet of each other (1 with COVID), it is 30 times more likely to give COVID to the other person, then if they are 6 feet more or apart. I don't drive drunk not because I love the government (I don't). I don't drive drunk because I care about myself and others. People should do the same when it comes to protecting themselves and others in not giving or getting COVID from one another.
     
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  35. a2z

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    This is different than wondering why a business owner would do something that makes them less money.

    Do you believe the customers who walk into that bar (in TX) or the other businesses that say you can't wear a mask feel less safe?

    Funny thing about mask wearing... in many places it is illegal to wear anything that covers your face ... until now. The reason - for the safety of the public. So, that may be another reason why a business owner would rather not have masked people in their business, especially a bar where fights may break out or other sordid behavior and a mask will hide who the perpetrators are.
     
  36. readingrules12

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    I do. There were many people on the news that were disappointed because they had some conditions medically, where they really felt they should wear a mask. Some lived with elderly people. So, they feel the same way. Now, they said they felt they couldn't go to the bar, and they felt sad. I didn't see any government officials feeling sad though.

    If I really wanted to spread COVID19 (I don't), after I got COVID19, I would walk into a crowded place, make sure I don't have a mask, and then talk a lot. We know enough that would be very risky behavior.
     
  37. catnfiddle

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    This conversation has gone SO far off the tracks, it may have wound up in the ocean.
     
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