Official-School is opening back in August 2020 for Arizona

Discussion in 'General Education' started by readingrules12, May 28, 2020.

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  1. readingrules12

    readingrules12 Aficionado

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    On a day where Arizona had probably its highest COVID-19 case total (501), the governor announced that schools will be opening back up for sure in August. It was brought up that over 2 months from now we really don't know what the virus situation will be. Didn't seem to matter...Arizona is opening all public schools.
     
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  3. Tired Teacher

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    Wow! I think that they need to take a wait and see approach. I think it'd be smart here for the district to be having paid or even voluntary training for online teaching. I'd check it out for free because right now, I am staying home until it has been 14 days since the rash. If they paid for it, I'd be really checking it out, and decent at it IF they need it next yr. :)
     
  4. CaliforniaRPCV

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  5. readingrules12

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    Thanks for that. Yes, I've seen that data. I notice that what they predicted the last 7 days was fairly off (they predicted 32 deaths/day and it turns out it was only 20/day). If they are off in predicting a week away, I am sure it will be probably be even more off in 6 weeks. I think they forget that it is 109 degrees right now in Phoenix, AZ and more people are starting to move inside to A/C. Still the increasing of cases is probably going to be true for some places in AZ such as in the north where cases continue to be high. The idea though of saying schools are open in 2 months when we don't even know what 2 months will look like is irresponsible IMO.
     
  6. futuremathsprof

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    I’m actually not worried about coronavirus as I initially was. The CDC recently released revised figures about the current fatality rate and it now stands at 0.26%, which is literally less than the flu. This means that 26 out of every 10,000 people who get the disease die, which are really good odds. (FYI, the fatality rate went from 3.4% to 2.0% in March-April and now its 0.26%.)

    The vast majority of people are recovering without issue and it’s basically only people who are immunosuppressed or are elderly or have comorbidities who are succumbing to Covid-19 or have lasting conditions. I fall into none of those categories and so I’m not too worried.
     
  7. CaliforniaRPCV

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    Mis-reporting cause of death might be a problem:
    https://www.abc15.com/news/local-ne...rom-covid-19-may-be-much-higher-than-reported
     
  8. CaliforniaRPCV

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    I don't suppose you could post some of your sources?
    Unfortunately, I'm not so sure about the quality of the data being reported. Death from COVID-19 seems to be under-reported, sometimes purposely. And as far as "recovering without issue", most of the data I see is dead/not dead, without much mention of statistics about the condition of the recovered.

    As a representative of those that, through no fault of their own, got old, I take a bit of an issue with your apparent lack of concern. Of course, you might have meant that you are less worried about your personal safety than you had been, not to say that you are unconcerned about those not in your fortunate demographic.
     
  9. futuremathsprof

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    “In March, the World Health Organization reported about 3.4% of people with the virus have died based on the known cases at the time. However, the latest CDC estimate has a mortality rate of about ten times less than that.

    The data is based on five scenarios, including the best estimate for a mortality rate, which is 0.4% overall. That’s about double the flu mortality rate of 0.2%, according to 2017 data on the CDC’s website.”

    https://www.wcnc.com/mobile/article...rate/275-fc43f37f-6764-45e3-b615-123459f0082b
     
  10. futuremathsprof

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    What I don’t understand is why 0.26% is scary to so many people. That’s almost the same as the flu and many other airborne or blood-borne diseases exist that have significantly higher mortality rates. For example, the World Health Organization estimates that the malaria virus kills 1 million people per year and infects 300 to 500 million people worldwide annually. That’s WAY more than what the coronavirus has done, so I don’t understand why that’s considered less threatening than the novel coronavirus.

    A 99.74% survival rate is troubling to people?
     
  11. futuremathsprof

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    “The disease can cause varying degrees of illness and is especially troublesome for older adults and people with existing health problems, who are at risk of severe effects, including pneumonia. But for most of those affected, coronavirus creates only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, with the vast majority recovering from the virus.”

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.us...s-recover-still-anxiety-fear-loom?context=amp
     
  12. futuremathsprof

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    “But government officials and medical experts, in their warnings about the epidemic, have also sounded a note of reassurance: Though the virus can be deadly, the vast majority of those infected so far have only mild symptoms and make full recoveries.

    More than 80% of coronavirus cases are mild.”

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...d/asia/coronavirus-treament-recovery.amp.html
     
  13. otterpop

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    Seems silly to say anything is “for sure” when there’s still so much that’s unknown.
     
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  14. readingrules12

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    That hasn't been my experience with those I know who have gotten the virus in their 50s. They haven't made full recoveries and it looks like that it has taken a toll on lungs and heart (1 person) that has a lasting effect.

    The figure of 80% though might be correct... so if about 3% die, that would mean 17% have lasting symptoms or harsh experiences, leaving the other 80% (mostly those under the age of 50) to make full recoveries with mild symptoms. Probably true, but I think many people forget about those 17% who don't have mild cases. Getting back to good news, I do know one person who is in her late 20s that got it. It wiped her out for 3-4 weeks, but she now appears to be fully recovered.
     
  15. futuremathsprof

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    But shouldn’t we be focusing on the majority and not the minority of cases who get long-lasting effects?
     
  16. CaliforniaRPCV

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    I have to say, futuremathsprof, you have a way of starting a conversation o_O

    First, malaria is caused by a parasite rather than a virus. And you can get it multiple times. I don't think you gain any immunity. According to the WHO, there were 228 million cases with 405,000 deaths in 2018 (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malaria). That is a mortality rate of 0.18%, rounded. That is not good. That is a coronavirus outbreaks worth year after year. It is worthy of more attention. It is a tough nut to crack. New drugs result in new resistant strains. Why isn't more attention focused on malaria? Because it mostly shows up in places like West Africa, not within our fortunate developed nation demographic.

    I don't know where you got the 0.26%. The first, and most current, article you cite says the best guess is 0.4%, which is anywhere between 2 and 4 times the rate of the flu. And that number is still a guess. Mortality rate is not the only problem though. Look at New York and you see that one of the main problems is that everyone gets it at once, overwhelming the hospitals. People get it, spread it around to others, who spread it around to others... and after two weeks of exponential growth in infection, some, but not all, of the first that got it figure out that they have it. There isn't that natural test of clear illness to tell someone they need to take a break, or stay away from that obviously sick person.

    There are a bit more than 330 million people in the US. Let's say 60% have to get and recover from coronavirus before herd immunity takes over. That is close to 800,000 dead. There is some interest in keeping the spread down to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and to provide some time to develop treatments. And maybe a vaccine so we don't have to go all natural about gaining that herd immunity.
     
  17. CaliforniaRPCV

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    Those numbers up there are pretty optimistic.
     
  18. readingrules12

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    Not sure about that 3.4% figure.

    As of today, this is what is known for death rates from the data given out each day.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    Italy--14.3%
    UK--14.1%
    Spain--9.5%
    France--15.4%
    United States--5.8%
    Germany--4.7%

    Yes, the actual percents would go down some if everyone is tested. Italy, Spain, and UK have tested more than the USA per capita, so unsure why their rate is so much higher. If that 0.4% rate was true that would mean that since we have 102,000 people who have died, that we really have 25,500,000 people infected. That seems a bit hard to believe. If it is true, then we have to be extra careful with 24 million infected people running around who haven't been tested.
     
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  19. readingrules12

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    You'd feel differently if they were people you know or if you were in that high risk age group. 9-11 had over a 94% survival rate, but we tended to understand that this is no small thing that 2800 people died. That the 6% of the people who died in the twin towers were Americans and we grieved them, and we did everything we could to stop it. Not like now where people say "How dare I have to wear a mask for 10 minutes at a store to protect someone's life." Now we get the equivalent of a 9-11 each day for 35 straight days and people still are acting like it isn't that bad. It is bad. It is the most devastating killer in my life time, and I'm not young.
     
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  20. futuremathsprof

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    I meant to say malaria parasite, that was a typo.

    Also, according to the CDC:

    “The coronavirus fatality rate estimate has fallen, according to the latest estimates of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to 0.26%, far below previous estimates.

    The updated CDC figures show a 0.4% death rate for symptomatic cases of coronavirus, down-grading the estimated fatality rate from 1% of symptomatic cases.

    With the CDC now estimating that more than a third (35%) of coronavirus cases are completely asymptomatic, the total fatality rate for the coronavirus is now believed to be 0.26%.”

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/280793
     
  21. readingrules12

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    Malaria kills 400,000 people a year..not a million. COVID-19 will kill more than 400,000 people this year in the world. 99.74% survival rate? If that is true then with 102,000 deaths that would mean nearly 40 million people have COVID-19 in the United States. That is 1 in 8 people in the country. With how contagious COVID-19 is, we'd be in big trouble if that is the case.
     
  22. futuremathsprof

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    “Over one million people die from malariaeach year, mostly children under five yearsof age, with 90 per cent of malaria cases occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa. An estimated 300-600 million people suffer from malaria each year. More than 40 percent of the world's population lives in malaria-risk areas.”

    https://www.unicef.org/media/files/MALARIAFACTSHEETAFRICA.pdf
     
  23. futuremathsprof

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    You are looking at this all wrong. A 99.74% is near perfect. You will never get a 100% survival rate for any disease. By your logic, any percentage for any transmissible disease spells big trouble for all.
     
  24. futuremathsprof

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    “Malaria is one of the most severe public health problems worldwide. It is a leading cause of death and disease in many developing countries, where young children and pregnant women are the groups most affected. According to the World Health Organization’s World Malaria Report 2017:
    • Nearly half the world’s population lives in areas at risk of malaria transmission in 91 countries and territories.”
    https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/malaria_worldwide/impact.html

    Where’s all the alarm for that again?
     
  25. CaliforniaRPCV

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    It's here:
     
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  26. futuremathsprof

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    647,000 die from cardiovascular disease each year in the United States. It’s tens of millions per year world wide and that number is expected to grow to 23 million by 2030. 17.6 million died from heart disease in 2016.

    https://healthmetrics.heart.org/wp-...eart-Disease-and-Stroke-Statistics-–-2019.pdf

    Your last sentence is demonstrably false.

    https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm
     
  27. readingrules12

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    99.74% is impossible. It is a lie. You are in math you should know it is impossible. Look at this, we know at least 102,000 Americans are dead. if only 0.26% die, then you are a math major, you know that is over 39.2 million Americans. There are more problems, we know that over 16.3 million people have been tested and 1.7 million have tested positive. This is 10.4%. which means 89.6% are negative. Then if you do the math (I know you can), then if 39.2 million are positive with COVID, that would mean 376 million would have to be tested. Oh wait, there aren't that many people in the United States...making 99.74% impossible.
     
  28. futuremathsprof

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    I believe that I’m a much greater authority on mathematics than you are.

    What you just said is patently false.

    The CDC disagrees with you and they are much more knowledgeable about such things and actually have the data and have performed the statistical analyses to make such conclusions.

    Ridiculous.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2020
  29. readingrules12

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  30. readingrules12

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    Please tell me which part of my math is false. I am using your 99.74% that you gave me. I am using the 102,000 who have died in the United States of COVID which is nationally known. Which one do you dispute?
     
  31. futuremathsprof

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    So a brief period in which it was more deadly in one region of the entire world makes it more deadly overall?

    Heart diseases kills tens of millions of people worldwide every single year.

    How many people worldwide have died of coronavirus? I’ll wait.
     
  32. futuremathsprof

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    The ludicrous figure of you extrapolating the percentage and saying that the number of people tested leads to an impossibility.

    That is not how it works. At all.
     
  33. readingrules12

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    You are an intelligent man, you can see that 99.74% is an educated and calculated prediction that over time has not worked out. The CDC and lots of others expected the number of cases would skyrocket when testing increased in the United States. It hasn't happened. I think if you get a more current article on it the CDC and others will state the 99.74% isn't accurate.
     
  34. futuremathsprof

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    Only when I see the data and the new report is released will I think otherwise.

    By the way, the 0.26% figure I quoted is the most recent figure. The CDC released it five days ago, I think.
     
  35. CaliforniaRPCV

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    I'm not sure how it works. I think you need to make an argument with numbers. Tell us how it does work. With examples.

    We are all extrapolating here, including the CDC. I know they are the experts. But, to be honest, I'd have more faith if experts with less optimistic extrapolations weren't fired so often.
     
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  36. readingrules12

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    What is your point? That this horrible disease that has killed so many people isn't that bad because there are worse things in the world? What does that prove? Maybe it isn't the worst thing, but is a horrible thing that over 35 times the number of people who died in the twin towers are now dead. It is a terrible thing that a friend of mine will never be the same from COVID-19 and she was lied that she didn't have to worry since COVID isn't much worse than the flu. If you want to convince me that 102,000 people dead is no big deal, you can't. It really hurts more than anything for people to be so insensitive to act like 100,000+ dead Americans is no big deal. I guess you and I see the value of a life much differently.
     
  37. futuremathsprof

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    I want to clarify that I absolutely think this virus is bad, but I have never seen this kind of reaction by world governments to any transmissible disease, especially since there are *much* worse ones on this Earth. Why aren’t they reacting about those to the extent that they are this one?

    That is my question.
     
  38. CaliforniaRPCV

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    Um. Remember the moderators. Don't want to go so far everything gets deleted.o_O
     
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  39. futuremathsprof

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    Good point.
     
  40. CaliforniaRPCV

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    I do agree that there are more persistent causes of death. Hunger, war...
     
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  41. MissCeliaB

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    But, they are, especially in the parts of the world where those illnesses are more prevalent. There are whole international fundraising efforts for mosquito nets, medicines, vaccines for countries where they are needed. We don't have special rules dealing with the spread of malaria and other illnesses because they aren't common here, but if you are traveling to areas where they are, you have to get a ton of vaccines and carry extra medicines with you.

    Heart disease is a huge killer in the US. If you recall, our previous First Lady made it her whole mission to reduce heart disease by improving eating and exercise habits, and decreasing obesity. The government funds billions of dollars in research into heart disease. They run huge campaigns. It's not like these issues are ignored.

    When those of us who are in at-risk populations see the young, the healthy, those who won the genetic lottery say things like, ".4% isn't that bad" it hurts. A huge problem we are having in our country right now is the inability to see the world from a perspective besides one's own. This virus has highlighted that for me, as have other recent events. I've been looking into ways to teach empathy to try to implement them in my classroom starting next year.
     
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