I have a ? for you math teachers out there. I am nearing the end of my 4th year teaching secondary math. I have a hypothesis about students and their grades and would like to hear from you on this issue. My hypothesis is: you could take the first two test grades of each school year and average them. This average could be used to predict the final grade with a very high (untested) degree of accuracy without any further grades being collected. A corollary to the above: the "pecking order" or "class ranking" from the average could be used to predict end of year rankings with a fairly high confidence level. The students may 'adjust" slightly but there is no upheaval if you will. In other words, my experience is showing me that there is very little "leapfrogging" throughout the year. the students seem to maintain the same relative position to each other when they leave my classroom as they did early in the school year. Any thoughts or opinions on this? Is your experiences different than mine? TA for any feedback.